Lend to spend. First FED and now ECB

The year 2011 ended with a bearish view and sentiment for the EUR, well motivated. Several member nations have more debt than healthy and the cost for borrowing has increased to unsustainable levels.

Also the austerity that’s needed doesn’t seem to have taken place in neither Greece nor Italy.
The same mood has continued into the new year 2012, but turned around a little bit late this week.

The European central bank is the reason why. By stimulating the market with more liquidity, ECB has succeeded to lend money, not bilateral but by detours, to the troubled countries at much lower interest rates than before. It may help in the short run, but one can wonder if it’s not only a way to push the problem forward.

Furthermore, the leaders for the two economic engines of Europe, Germany’s Merkel and France’s Sarkozy, have had several meetings and though not much has been presented they are repeatedly unified and state that the Euro will hold.

Will a warmer climate stop the Gulf Stream? Part II

The salinity of the North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean is considered to be an important factor to keep the deep water formation and thus the Gulf Stream running. Through a warmer climate, and increased melting of the Greenland ice sheet, the salinity may change so that the deep water formation is influenced by a sharply increased supply of fresh water.

So far this has not affected the formation of deep water. But if the fresh water supply is further enhanced the picture may be changed. In recent decades, scientists have got reports showing that the sea ice melting in the Arctic is increasing, that there is an addition of river water into the Arctic Ocean and the melting of the Greenland glacier will increase.

The normal supply of fresh water in the area is huge and so far the increased supply only make up to a small fraction of the total. So far one has not found any evidence that deep water formation is affected in a way that the Gulf Stream has started to slow down.

The factor that probably has the greatest significance in the future is whether the melting of Greenland ice sheet is increasing dramatically. What scientists have different opinions on is whether this is sufficient to affect the Gulf Stream. Some say reassuring that it may take more than a hundred years, some say shorter and some say that it will not happen.

Will a warmer climate stop the Gulf Stream?

The Gulf Stream brings the warm water from the Mid Atlantic northward along the west coast of Scandinavia's and makes our climate much warmer than normal in our latitudes than in other parts of the world.

In the Arctic Ocean and the seas east of Greenland seawater sinks from the surface down to deeper levels due to high density.

The question is whether theories such as in "The Day After Tomorrow" are true? It claims that increased temperature through global warming, could lead to an increased supply of fresh water in the Arctic sea from the glaciers. The salinity in the water would decrease and the density would become lower. But how much depends on the salt and how much is due to the water's properties? Water is at its heaviest at 4 degrees and a high salinity also increases density. The Deep water formation, when the salt, heavy surface water sinks and is replaced by inflowing, warmer water from the North Atlantic is the main engine behind the Gulf Stream.

Can deep water formation be slowed down or completely stop if the surface water density decreases due to salinity? The flow of warm water from the Atlantic would in such cases subside or stop. Should the Gulf Stream come to a halt, would obviously be catastrophic. The question is how likely this is?

Water is a fantastic thing!

Water is, as you know the prerequisite for life on Earth. Or rather, the Earth's life forms have arisen mainly due to the unique properties of water. On another planet, there may be completely different conditions and totally different form of life. Who knows?

Water is not like many of our elements. In its solid, frozen state volume is larger but the density is lower than in it’s liquid state. It is at its heaviest in the liquid state just above the freezing point (+4 degrees Celsius).

The detail of density means that no water along the poles, with normal depth, bottom freezes in winter. Along the bottom, the water is 4 degrees Celsius and a specific biological activity is always occurring. This means that aquatic animals can find some food during the winter, which would have been impossible if the bottom was covered with ice.

Is the Gulf stream getting weaker? Part I

The characteristics of water are as I said relatively unique. The fact that it is at its heaviest at +4 degrees Celsius is one reason for the formation of the Gulf Stream.

The Gulf Stream is a crucial part of Earth's complex system of air and water currents. It brings the hot water from the area around the Gulf of Mexico, which has given it its name all the way up to the waters east of Grönland. On it’s way north in the Atlantic sea it passes the North west coast of Africa, British Isles, west coast of Norway and Iceland.

Once up in the Arctic the stream is cooled off. The lower temperature means that the water may have get higher salinity. Low temperatures and high salinity increases the density of the water and it begins to sink. When the water sinks towards the bottom it creates space for new water on the surface and presto, we have one of the driving forces behind the formation of the current.

More will come

Madden Julian Oscillation(MJO) and the El Niño-Southern oscillation(ENSO)

There is strong variability in MJO activity from year to year. There are long periods of strong activity followed by periods in which the oscillation is weak or absent.

This interannual variability of the MJO is partly linked to the ENSO cycle!!

In the Pacific, strong MJO activity is often observed 6 – 12 months prior to the onset of an El Niño episode, but is virtually absent during the maxima of some El Niño episodes.

MJO activity is typically greater during a La Niña episode. Strong events in the Madden–Julian oscillation over a series of months in the western Pacific can speed the development of an El Niño or La Niña but usually do not in themselves lead to the onset of a warm or cold ENSO event.

The westerly surface winds associated with active MJO convection are stronger during advancement toward El Niño and the easterly surface winds associated with the suppressed convective phase are stronger during advancement toward La Nina.

But it is not the MJO that creates El Niño and La Niña, there is only a correlation between the ENSO and the the status of the Niñas!?

Read more about how NOAA follows the MJO activity to help them in the forecasting

Why is it more windy during winter?

The difference in air pressure between the Equator and North Pole is at its highest during midwinter. Then the air over the North Pole is at its coldest and heaviest, while it is still summer warm over the Equator. When the air in the north is at the coldest and heaviest, the kinetic energy towards the high pressure in the south is the greatest and we get stronger winds than during our summer half year when the differences in temperature are smaller.

Wind occurs because of pressure differences in the air. These pressure differences are created by air temperature differences. We get temperature differences in the atmosphere because the earth is spherical and therefore the solar radiation has different approach to the Earth's surface. In the northern hemisphere, the angle between the sun and the earth's surface reduces the further north one travels. Therefore, it is warmer at the equator and colder at the poles.

In the atmosphere there is high pressure and low pressure created by the difference in temperature of the air masses in different areas. When air masses move from areas of high pressure to areas of low pressure winds occurs. The greater the pressure difference is the harder it blows.

Solar heating is unevenly distributed over the earth and the wind is trying to smooth out these differences in temperature. Therefore, the wind blows more in the fall and winter in our part of the world, when very cold air has formed at the North Pole, while air masses in the south are still summer warm.

There are different types of high pressure. Stationary high pressures are warm and created over large sea areas while the seasonal high pressures are cold and occur during winter over the northern continents. Variable high-pressures occur in connection with the migratory lows. It is the seasonal high pressure that creates cold winds from north to south.